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  • AvatarSteven Grant
    Participant
    Post count: 13

    Hi Sean

    What’s your opinion on the stimulus?

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 806

    It hasn’t been passed yet. BUT, it can’t stop a downtrend/bear market. It can’t keep overvalued companies from going back to a state of undervaluation, through stock price declines. However, what it can attempt to do is to make a recession less deep than it would have been OR less in length than it would have otherwise been without it. That’s all it can do. There’s not a central banker or government that can “prop up” a market in a downtrend. They can only support markets in uptrends. Market participants wrongly believe that central bankers can be a “back stop” to the market to where it never goes down. They’re sadly mistaken. It’s why we have always had bear market declines in stocks that were always unavoidable.

    In other words, they can’t stop the business/economic cycle expansion and contraction modes. The latter one has to come too because it wipes out excesses. Here’s the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1915. Keep in mind, the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. They couldn’t prevent any of these bear market downtrends that I’ve circled.

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    AvatarTSavage
    Participant
    Post count: 12

    First the bill was $50billion, then $1trillion, then, $2trillion and last night it was $6trillion. Why is all this money (adding to our debt) needed? Unless it’s for PPE, hospital equipment, testing, direct research, managing distribution, or extending unemployment benefits to temporarily laid off workers, I think it’s not needed. All banks should not charge for march/April loan payments..if your loan was for 30 years, it’s now 30 years and two months. Have that trickle down to leases and rents so small businesses and apartment folks benefit. Once this is over, folks will start spending again because they didn’t have all these expenses during the shutdown. Giving money to Boeing or any large corporation shouldn’t be done. Giving money to cruise ships or hotels shouldn’t be done. Maybe I’m being simplistic. if there is a reason why $6trillion is required please explain. I still don’t get it.

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 806

    While that seems like a lot of money, we have a $22 trillion economy. So if you pretty much shut that down…you’ve got a pretty big gap to fill in order to not make it implode. https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

    AvatarSteven Grant
    Participant
    Post count: 13

    Hi again

    Thanks a for a prompt reply

    So what do you think they should do?

    Is there smthg they can do??

    Regards

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 806

    There’s no asset known to man that can stay in an overvalued state (whether that’s housing prices, stock prices, etc.). There’s no government or central bank that can prevent it. And we shouldn’t even want it prevented. Why would we want things to remain overvalued aka falsely valued?

    We shouldn’t desire the business/economic cycle to cease or only have upside but not downside. Instead, we should be wise and know that these cycles happen and prepare for them ahead of time.

    There’s not a financial problem…there’s a lack of wisdom and stewardship at the root of the problem, which causes the symptom/side-effect of a financial problem.

    AvatarScott Grover
    Participant
    Post count: 7

    Sean your description of economic cycles reminds me of this video of Murray Rothbard I saw a few years ago.

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 806

    There’s never any stopping this process. But for some reason, people think that the Fed or government can do away with the downside of the economic cycle. It’s never been able to be stopped and never will be.

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