Bob SmithParticipantJanuary 8, 2021 at 11:27 AMPost count: 133
I got up this morning and SLV was down 5%, almost bought some.
Now that it is down 7% I did buy a tranche.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 8, 2021 at 11:28 AMPost count: 5577
It’s volatile on the upside and on the downside. We don’t want to average up though. Only averaging down.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 8, 2021 at 11:41 AMPost count: 5577
Remember: You can’t have upside volatility without downside volatility. The two go together like water and wet. They’re inseparable.
So, there’s nothing wrong with silver today, or any other metal.
Something that can go from $10ish to $27ish (upside volatility) in mere months, no one has a problem with. Yet, it’s volatility.
But if it has a large down day or down period, people get shocked. But you can’t have one without the other. Volatility works both ways. Since you can’t have one without the other, you should set your expectations properly for it…because it’s coming. One just doesn’t know when.
Attachments:You must be logged in to view attached files.ThankfulParticipantJanuary 8, 2021 at 11:47 AMPost count: 308
Profit taking comes in all shapes and sizes. As it has zoomed up we’re not the only ones who’ve seen our metals positions rise. Thankful that Sean encouraged half selling when it touched the $26’s/$27 area last August and love that I hold it now. But when there’s a sell off there’s a sell off. If it gets to $15 I’ll average down, but that’s a long way away.Sean HymanModeratorJanuary 8, 2021 at 11:55 AMPost count: 3239
Yep, my “sell half” suggestion on that last rally gave us twice the upside volatility than downside volatility that came afterward.
We’re either in wave 3 now, or the latter half of a double zig zag wave 2 correction that still leads to an amazing wave 3.
What’s that mean in plain English? Higher highs are still to come whether sooner or later. Those highs will be far higher than the wave 1, $27ish highs. Like I said on yesterday’s weekly videos, I expect SLV to eventually hit the $34-$36ish area minimally. Definitely holding through any volatile bumps along the way.
With metals, there are no earnings or P/E ratios, so Elliott Wave counts give us huge confidence in what stage/area of the trend that we’re in.John FreyParticipantJanuary 8, 2021 at 12:01 PMPost count: 136
I closed my short SLV Mar ’21 puts yesterday for a respectable 55% profit. I am considering sell some more puts today. What are your thoughts>Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 8, 2021 at 12:21 PMPost count: 5577
Selling puts on dips within uptrends, there’s nothing wrong with that since they’re “with the trend”.
Ideally, you’d want to sell puts around the bottom Bollinger Band on the daily chart and/or as close as possible to the 200-day moving average. it may or may not get that low, but those would be more ideal. It’s got a shot at that bottom band.
Glad you took in some nice income on an asset that in-and-of-itself does not put out any income.
One thing you could consider is dividing your money in half and selling some puts now after this huge intraday slam lower in SLV and if it were to hit the bottom Bollinger Band on the daily chart or the moving average, to sell (to open) your remaining puts. Just a thought. In the end, that decision has to be yours though.John FreyParticipantJanuary 8, 2021 at 12:36 PMPost count: 136
That is great advice. I did open (sell) a small number of puts at the next average down point since that is where I would buy SLV anyway.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 8, 2021 at 12:42 PMPost count: 5577
Awesome. It’s probably the best “happy medium” to get something in, in case the fall halts sooner but to have a better blended return if it were to fall further.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 8, 2021 at 3:57 PMPost count: 5577
Keep in mind, too, that gold was only down 3.4% today. Nothing unusual or out of the ordinary about that.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 8, 2021 at 4:01 PMPost count: 5577
Additionally keep in mind what I’ve taught about the final couple of weeks of a year and the first couple of weeks of a year: That those are less liquid times in markets due to lack of institutional involvement/volume and any asset can potential swing a good bit during those times, simply for that reason alone.
But there has been no move in metals that is uncommon. Gold, silver, platinum routinely swing quite a bit % wise both up and down. People just love the upside volatility but don’t like the downside volatility.Jeff CrowhurstParticipantJanuary 9, 2021 at 12:18 PMPost count: 40
Published today on Seeking Alpha
GDX: Buy The Dip In Gold Miners
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397975-gdx-buy-dip-in-gold-minersSean HymanKeymasterJanuary 9, 2021 at 12:34 PMPost count: 5577
Yeah, Seeking Alpha is a real “mixed bag” of a few pros and a lot of younger, lesser experienced investors on there. The bar is low because most people can write/post articles on there.
So, what I usually find are that they’re either full of bad advice (like the “value trap” articles I talked about on the weekly video…they came from Seeking Alpha), or either they’re way late. In other words, they find stuff way later than we do.Bob SmithParticipantJanuary 9, 2021 at 2:27 PMPost count: 133
There is other stuff to read, Sean often links Zerohedge Durden stuff. I keep coming back to the stuff that Sean’s consistently serves.
I like the one hour period, sometimes 15 minute interval charts that Sean posts in the threads about what he thinks of “the market”. Do not buy the potential high down side risk stuff.
Back to metals: I like that Sean keeps us posted as to the general trend. Sean warns us of the possible highly volatile short term down and up swings.
Shame on me, lately I often trade the shorter term metal swings particularly SLV. I bought on the 10% drop below the bottom BB on Friday, at the end of the day was up 1%, in a week or two I expect SLV to go up through the upper BB for a solid profit. If not I will wait.
Meanwhile cash is waiting for after the selloff.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 9, 2021 at 7:17 PMPost count: 5577
Yeah, if one is truly keeping up with the weekly videos (at a minimum) and browsing the forums here and there, there should be no shocks when a stock/ETF makes a good sized move either way because I tell about the potential for most of them to happen, ahead of time. So far, I’ve never seen another newsletter do that. Maybe someone does…but if they do, I’ve never seen it.
So, I believe y’all get more insight than I’ve ever seen one give.
Elliott Waves give me a big edge on overall market sentiment and the stages of an uptrend/downtrend and what’s likely to happen. Many pros just don’t get Elliott Waves. They either don’t know them, don’t believe in them or don’t understand them. But right after fundamentals (which are the most important), these are likely a close 2nd.
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