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  • Aphroditus
    Participant
    Post count: 72

    I own this from an old portfolio and have owned this since 7/5/2017 (so maybe 3.5 years). I’m up 16.5% including dividends, so 4.74% YoY plus dividends. On the 2 year daily chart I see that it’s testing, breaking a line of support going back 12 months with the RSI rising and the MacD histogram (bars?) improving and the MACD lines on an upward trend. On the 10y weekly chart I see a much better. The technicals on the 10Y weekly are about the same, and the actual chart just broke the 200w moving average. It looks like it has some more news to run and in the news I see some structural reforms in Turkey, like higher central bank interest rates to support their currency. I think I saw rates of anywhere from 9-15% over there. Is this a good stock to hold onto for longer to see if I can get 7-9% YoY gains?

    As spoiled as I have been by the quick returns, I’m a big fan of Turkey (logically and emotionally, the food is great and the country is beautiful ha ha ha), so I’m interested in thoughts about whether or not to hold onto this for longer. I remember Sean saying that emerging markets can be very volatile, so maybe some upward volatility is due?

    Sean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 7064

    News never factors in. News and how stocks respond to it will always be hit-or-miss.

    Case in point, the news of the US economy has been horrible. Yet US stocks are at/near all-time highs.

    Yes, the weekly chart gives the most clarity, always. Correct. I think it can head to this red box of resistance next, over time. (top chart).

    In the bottom chart, here are two likely near- to medium-term scenarios.

    Yes, every stork won’t run for us in months or a year. But also, people have a MUCH better understanding of averaging down now, so they wouldn’t likely be in positions quite as long now, as a result.

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    Aphroditus
    Participant
    Post count: 72

    Is it worth locking in/protecting the gains I have? What would be a decent gain over 4 years? Trying to keep things in perspective especially as there have been so many winners lately

    Sean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 7064

    Every stock won’t have an amazing annualized return. Yet, overall, they will.

    If markets hold up, it can breakout like I showed on the last chart. But if the bottom falls out of the market, emerging market stocks could be influenced lower too, potentially. So, you have to make that decision. No one will know ahead of time when things exactly turn south. If we did, the decision would be easier.

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