Thoughts on averaging down on PBR and VALE sometime in the future

[Anonymous]

#17012

Sean,

I previously reviewed your targets for the old UWR stocks. What are your thoughts on averaging down on these two stocks during the bear market? Do you think Oil has further to fall?

Thanks,
Matt

[Sean Hyman]

#17027

Vale is in much better shape, financially. So it’s probably fine. But I don’t think I’d average down on PBR, just hold what you’ve got. But in the end, it’s up to you.

[Mark]

#143697

Another I’m catching up on. Vale, in for years at $13.92/share. Today down to $13.65. Looks like it’s coming to the end of a long wave 4 potentially? Do you have thoughts on this one since the most recent post on this thread? Thx.

[Sean Hyman]

#143700

No doubt, its long-term a-b-c downtrend is over. However, its next uptrend could be counted at least a couple of different ways. So, it’s a bit murky. If it does the white scenario, I’d sell and take profits. And if it does the yellow scenario, you could do an averaging down and hold until you’re into profitability and then sell.

Even if it does the yellow scenario (or lower) ultimately, with its solid and cheap fundamentals, it should have no problem doing the white scenario over time even if the yellow scenario came first. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VALE/key-statistics?p=VALE

 

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[Mark]

#149041

Looks like we got the white scenario you showed on the chart.  Being it’s closed above its 50 and 200 and pushing higher, with the fundamentals, do you still advise to close out now or give it some more time.  I’m currently at 13% profitable though have sat on it for years.

[Sean Hyman]

#149044

Since you probably have EWZ as well, I’d suggest closing those out since profitable and it will give you more cash for future opportunities and allow you to diversify a bit more.

EWZ has large positions in these two already. So, really, you’ve got duplicate positions and a bit of overconcentration in Brazil with all 3 positions (assuming you have EWZ). If you have EWZ, it’s my broad-based way I’d play the up-move in Brazil/emerging markets and the decline of the dollar, etc.

So, I’d consider exiting these former positions, since profitable.

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[Mark]

#149047

Oh, good deal.  I sold PBR a couple months ago and I am in EWZ.  Didn’t realize it carried Vale so sounds good.  Glad to get out of it profitably.  Thanks.

[Sean Hyman]

#149052

Good deal. You’re welcome.

[Scott Pearcy]

#154242

I still own a small position in PBR….what are your thoughts about this for the upcoming future?

[Sean Hyman]

#154278

It depends. Are you profitable? If so, by how much? Or are you unprofitable?

It’s definitely stretched far above its major moving average on its weekly chart.

[Scott Pearcy]

#155679

Right now I am up about 46%….

[Sean Hyman]

#155680

You’d want to sell at least half of it or else you risk giving up 100% of a 46% gain.

With that said, there’s a good chance that wave 3 could hit as high as the shaded zone or red resistance area, for the remaining half.

Congrats!

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[Scott Pearcy]

#155684

Sold half for 46%….

[Sean Hyman]

#155685

Good job!

[Sean Hyman]

#157009

This could weigh upon PBR. If you’re in it and profitable, you might consider selling:

Latin America’s biggest oil company will be more cautious about issuing blockbuster dividends as it moves to become a renewable energy powerhouse, Petrobras Chief Executive Officer Jean Paul Prates said in an interview.

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