Christopher WalshParticipantJanuary 5, 2021 at 4:57 PMPost count: 54
OVV was one of the former picks I had. I’m down 20% in one account and up 26% in my wife’s account. Wonder if you could do a chart for us regarding elliot waves,
thanks so much
ChrisAphroditusParticipantJanuary 5, 2021 at 5:01 PMPost count: 72
Not sure about your tranches but what about selling what’s up and averaging down on what’s down and then exiting when you become break-even/close to profitable?Christopher WalshParticipantJanuary 5, 2021 at 5:14 PMPost count: 54
Here in Canada, we have Tax Free Savings account, with a yearly limit of contribution, so I couldn’t average down, as it is at maximum contribution. I made that mistake and realized it is not a good place to do Seans system. But works great in other investment vehicles. So, I’m just wondering Seans thoughts on where it is in the wave analysis. But you are probably correct that I could sell the one that up 26%
Thanks for inputSean HymanKeymasterJanuary 5, 2021 at 5:35 PMPost count: 7046
Their cash is lower than it should be (way lower) and their debt is way higher than it should be. So you’d want to take profits on your wife’s account for sure. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OVV/key-statistics?p=OVV
It’s more about the weak fundamentals than the wave counts, as far as the corporate risks. Now, it does help that oil and energy in general is rising/trending higher once again.
On a weekly chart, we’re likely in a major wave 1. On a daily chart, we’re likely in a wave 3 within that major wave 1.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 5, 2021 at 5:44 PMPost count: 7046
Aphroditus, that’s tweaking the system and I’d discourage that.
When you sell a tranche that’s up, you bring your average breakeven back up. So we don’t look at it as any one tranche up. We look at it as are we up overall or are we not up overall, because it will be your lowest/last tranche that makes the bulk of your money for you.
Christopher, making a contribution to your account and how much you can put in each stock within your account should be two different things.
So, you should still be able to take your yearly limit contribution and divide that contribution amount by the number of potential stocks (20-25) and 3 tranches per stock.Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 5, 2021 at 5:59 PMPost count: 7046
You’re welcome. Never look at tranches. See it as one overall investment. The only advantages tranches have are that they lower your overall costs. If you take profits on those, it may make you feel better about it but it raises costs back up on your remaining shares.Andrew GrahamParticipantJanuary 6, 2021 at 9:34 AMPost count: 106
This is another UWR stock I kept that is getting much closer to my break even ($19). I read their quarterly statement yesterday and they say that they are reducing debt and hope to reduce $1B additional debt in 2021, so at least it looks like they realize that their debt is a problem and are addressing it. Regardless, I can’t wait to punch out of it and roll into other LI picks. But confirms what you said back then when you recommended it that eventually oil prices and then oil stocks will recover and its awesome to see it happening!! Thanks Sean!Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 6, 2021 at 10:02 AMPost count: 7046
Yep, and where did I get most of my questions about it and doubts from subscribers…and wondering if they should sell and take their losses? In both waves C and 2. The power of Elliott Waves is to KNOW the sentiment but not to BECOME the prevailing sentiment.
I bet most subscribers wouldn’t have thought that it could go from the $2’s, to the $17’s in mere months…not years. That’s a ton of doublings.
It also proves my point that value stocks, once they get going, can rocket unusually off of their lows like a beachball held under water and then let go. People don’t always believe this when they’re down (including some of my own subscribers)…yet it doesn’t make it not true. It just doesn’t “feel true” at the moment.
So, these are the lessons subscribers should learn, having gone through wave C, 1 and 2 and on into wave 3 now.AphroditusParticipantJanuary 6, 2021 at 10:22 AMPost count: 72
With the price being at the top bollinger band, this looks like it’s good for some put options.
Obviously we have the XOP, but would this be worth entering if it pulls back? Technically the daily is overstretched but the weekly long term looks like it can still move.Andrew GrahamParticipantJanuary 6, 2021 at 10:23 AMPost count: 106
I was planning to sell at my breakeven of $19. But is there a resistance zone above $19 worth targeting for my exit instead ?
PS. I love how Elliot waves match my feelings and sentiment about a stock. When a stock I own is at the end of a Wave 2, I’m totally bummed out about it and wish I had never owned it…its awesome to be able to recognize it, ignore the feelings, and act and invest appropriately. Then when Wave 3 comes it feels less like euphoria and more of a sense of accomplishment ! Thank you and so very grateful for the training !!!Sean HymanKeymasterJanuary 6, 2021 at 10:35 AMPost count: 7046
Aphroditus: NO! Buying puts are not a high probable thing in an uptrend on its daily chart and in a wave 3. That would likely be a BIG mistake. You’ll notice my uses of Bollinger Bands are WITH the trend, not AGAINST the trend.
Nope. Like I said earlier…OVV has too low of cash and too high of debt to put new cash into it.
Andrew: $23-$36ish is its zone of resistance. So, you could probably close it out close to $23.AphroditusParticipantJanuary 6, 2021 at 10:49 AMPost count: 72
Can you explain more about buying calls with uptrend, puts with the downtrend? OkSean HymanKeymasterJanuary 6, 2021 at 10:52 AMPost count: 7046
That’s not something I can fully explain in one post but I do have a book on it, with strategies: Option Trading Demystified https://www.ebookit.com/tools/pd/Bo/eBookIt/booktitle-Option-Trading-Demystified–Six-Simple-Trading-Strategies-That-Will-Give-You-An-Edge
People make a ton of novice mistakes in option trading. It’s worth getting educated on it first before starting trading options.
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