DANNY ABARParticipantJanuary 7, 2021 at 9:25 AMPost count: 95
I don’t want to get political … I am sure the comments would be endless.
But, without any knowledge of past market changes with the major political changes we are transitioning to and ever increasing market highs …
I would like to read about the thoughts and facts regarding where we are now, and what might trigger the long awaited market correction back reality.
Thanks,AphroditusParticipantJanuary 7, 2021 at 10:02 AMPost count: 65
1/3 of the stock market is owned by foreigners (non-American citizens/entities).
But at some point the market will realize that the economic output is not there.
There’s two great books I recommend to you that are great reads now. One is by Dr. Weiss, and it’s “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide.” He has a great history of how the Fed has tried to stimulate the economy and failed, and how market bullishness/bearishness happen and how the general public reacts going back to the 1930s. The other one is about the 1929 crash by a guy called Galbraith. Warren Buffett recommended it during the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting. Over the past year, along with Sean’s hammering of market principles, these have been great guides to help me be better observer of the market/vs. participant in the mania.Sean HymanModeratorJanuary 7, 2021 at 11:41 AMPost count: 3267
Just remember that the economy doesn’t equal the stock market. For instance, the economy was mostly shut down at one point and it’s been. So bad that the government had to send out checks a couple of times or so. Yet, if you could only view the stock market, you’d think the economy was fine…but it’s notSean HymanModeratorJanuary 7, 2021 at 11:50 AMPost count: 3267
No one knows the trigger ahead of time. One can just know when the risks are abnormally high.
Who’s in office changes nothing about how we invest. Those that invest based off of politics get left holding the bag.
The market was supposed to crash under Obama and it didn’t. Then they said It would crash under Trump etc. The Fed has more to do with it than presidents. And valuations mean more than all of it.DANNY ABARParticipantJanuary 8, 2021 at 7:49 AMPost count: 95
Thanks for the recommendation, AphroditusSean HymanKeymasterJanuary 8, 2021 at 9:05 AMPost count: 5701
While history does repeat itself, markets (while similar acting to then for sure) are differernt from then in that:
Back in the 20’s, there was 10 times leverage. We don’t have that today.
There was much less public involvement back then, percentage wise, than there are today with many people participating in markets through 401ks, IRAs, etc,
Someone (a rich individual) back then could more easily influence stocks and even get by with stuff that today would be considered illegal.
Also, we have more computerized trading these days, which isn’t even controlled by humans and “has no emotion”, etc.
But as long as you’re aware of differences like that, there’s nothing wrong with reading things from the crash/depression.
Now…you know my thoughts that I believe there’s another crash coming for the overall market. It won’t be pretty. And part of it is certainly due to the actions of the Fed. Part of it is due to the emotions and inexperience of the retail investing public, etc. for sure.
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