DANNY ABARParticipantAugust 11, 2020 at 7:55 AMPost count: 73
Good morning, everyone …
Sean, we’ve seen a new high (Wave 5) for NASDAQ, and we may see a new high (Wave 5) for the S&P500, near opening this morning. The DJI30 still is a bit away from a new High(Wave) and seems to be holding in a Wave B.
We know that S&P500 is the best view for over the overall market, and NASDAQ100 is loaded up with new technologies and the FANG stocks.
So, other than than stocks are way overpriced with high P/Es, weakening RSI and MACD, and prices far away from Moving Averages, what can we analyze, based on the situation that is unfolding, to let us know …
What the heck is going on … ???Sean HymanKeymasterAugust 11, 2020 at 9:37 AMPost count: 3415
Other than that…the only things you can do is monitor the daily and hourly or 4-hour charts of the market leaders of that index.
For instance, if it was the NASDAQ one was looking for a turn in, then they can watch the charts of FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, etc.
Today, so far, those stocks are weak and so is the overall NASDAQ.Sean HymanKeymasterAugust 11, 2020 at 9:40 AMPost count: 3415
Once the green line is broken, the downside on the NASDAQ has likely begun. But as it starts to trade and hold below a 200-day moving average, etc. you get more confirmation of that. Calling tops are a very difficult thing to do for sure.
Attachments:You must be logged in to view attached files.Sean HymanKeymasterAugust 11, 2020 at 10:12 AMPost count: 3415
Also, the rotation into our value stocks is a cautionary sign for the overall market too (just like the amazing rally in gold/silver/platinum).
While the dumb money is chasing the last part of the tech boom, central banks and institutions are loading up on metals. And institutions are also rotating into value stocks, like the ones we’re in. They’re hunkering down.
Yesterday there was a CNBC interview of the guy that leads Tiger 21. It’s a group of high net worth people (typically $10 million to $1 billion). 800 members that pay $30,000 per year to be a part of it. That group raised cash to historic levels, for them. (I bet the LI subscription looks like a bargain now. ha-ha!)
The smart money knows what’s likely, while the dumb money is stumbling over themselves to buy historic highs and overvalued, high-risk stocks.
You’ll see that their views are very similar to mine. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/08/tiger-21-chairman-michael-sonnenfeldt-on-how-his-clients-are-navigating-coronavirus-driven-volatility.html
Sean HymanKeymasterAugust 11, 2020 at 10:53 AMPost count: 3415DANNY ABARParticipantAugust 11, 2020 at 4:02 PMPost count: 73
- This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Sean Hyman.
Earnings vs S&P500 really tells the story of the cost of the “fake shutdown!!!”
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