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  • DANNY ABARDANNY ABAR
    Participant
    Post count: 73

    Good morning, everyone …

    Sean, we’ve seen a new high (Wave 5) for NASDAQ, and we may see a new high (Wave 5) for the S&P500, near opening this morning. The DJI30 still is a bit away from a new High(Wave) and seems to be holding in a Wave B.

    We know that S&P500 is the best view for over the overall market, and NASDAQ100 is loaded up with new technologies and the FANG stocks.

    So, other than than stocks are way overpriced with high P/Es, weakening RSI and MACD, and prices far away from Moving Averages, what can we analyze, based on the situation that is unfolding, to let us know …

    What the heck is going on … ???

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 3415

    Other than that…the only things you can do is monitor the daily and hourly or 4-hour charts of the market leaders of that index.

    For instance, if it was the NASDAQ one was looking for a turn in, then they can watch the charts of FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, etc.

    Today, so far, those stocks are weak and so is the overall NASDAQ.

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 3415

    Once the green line is broken, the downside on the NASDAQ has likely begun. But as it starts to trade and hold below a 200-day moving average, etc. you get more confirmation of that. Calling tops are a very difficult thing to do for sure.

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    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 3415

    Also, the rotation into our value stocks is a cautionary sign for the overall market too (just like the amazing rally in gold/silver/platinum).

    While the dumb money is chasing the last part of the tech boom, central banks and institutions are loading up on metals. And institutions are also rotating into value stocks, like the ones we’re in. They’re hunkering down.

    Yesterday there was a CNBC interview of the guy that leads Tiger 21. It’s a group of high net worth people (typically $10 million to $1 billion). 800 members that pay $30,000 per year to be a part of it. That group raised cash to historic levels, for them. (I bet the LI subscription looks like a bargain now. ha-ha!)

    The smart money knows what’s likely, while the dumb money is stumbling over themselves to buy historic highs and overvalued, high-risk stocks.

    You’ll see that their views are very similar to mine. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/08/tiger-21-chairman-michael-sonnenfeldt-on-how-his-clients-are-navigating-coronavirus-driven-volatility.html

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Sean HymanSean Hyman.
    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 3415

    We’re seeing it unfold today like it was back in 2000. Corporate profits fell quite a while before the market reflected it. That’s what we’re seeing today, just like it was back around the year 2000.

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    AvatarTSavage
    Participant
    Post count: 19

    Thank you for the details.

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 3415

    You’re welcome.

    DANNY ABARDANNY ABAR
    Participant
    Post count: 73

    Earnings vs S&P500 really tells the story of the cost of the “fake shutdown!!!”

    Sean HymanSean Hyman
    Keymaster
    Post count: 3415

    Yeah, but it was falling off before that. The shutdown just worsened it.

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