CJonesParticipantNovember 16, 2020 at 2:16 PMPost count: 10
I made some very nice profits from the recent sell alerts and am sitting on some cash to re-invest. I know we have our picks but the market is up right now and I’m wondering if we should sit on this cash until the tranche values come down a bit? Clearly we’re within buy range given the chart numbers for “buy at or under” so am I overthinking this?Sean HymanKeymasterNovember 16, 2020 at 2:21 PMPost count: 4506
Glad you did so well on them. Awesome!
Among the stuff we’re presently invested in, the tranches won’t change.
Are you looking at a certain stock or ETF of ours?CJonesParticipantNovember 16, 2020 at 2:31 PMPost count: 10
I have most everything on the current list. Just wondering what I should, if anything, get into? The issue I’m having is, pretty much all of the current prices are higher than what I originally got into them for. So, anything I buy will be paying more for the stock than I did before. Like a reverse Tranche. 😀 That doesn’t sound like a good idea to me. So I was wondering if should wait till the market corrects a bit or get more stock of something I have even if the prices are higher right now due to the rally?Sean HymanKeymasterNovember 16, 2020 at 2:44 PMPost count: 4506
You’d not want to put in additional tranches unless they reach our averaging down zone prices. If they do not, then you’d want to remain in cash instead of going in early.
Now, if you have large profits for the holding time, then you can always sell to lock-in those profits.
You’d not want to “average up” though. That would increase your average breakeven price and reduce your average % return. Cash is only worth deploying if it gives us a strategic advantage by taking our average cost/breakeven notably lower % wise. So, I’d always suggest sticking with the official averaging down zones.
Also, I’ve got some other stocks on my watch list. So, we may have some new picks in the next monthly issue. We’ll see. But better to have too much cash than too little. Cash = opportunities lack of cash = lack of opportunitieslori hockParticipantNovember 16, 2020 at 3:54 PMPost count: 29
So I have had this mutual fund and I am up 28%, should I sell it all to free up cash?Paul BunkerParticipantNovember 16, 2020 at 4:18 PMPost count: 18
Any sneak previews of next month’s possible buys; so, we can watch them along with you?Sean HymanKeymasterNovember 16, 2020 at 4:27 PMPost count: 4506
Lori, yes. Why? The market is at some of the most overvalued levels that it’s been in, in history. So, while no one will be able to “capture the top”, you can always know when things are extremely high-risk. And right now, your fund would have to be heavily tied to/influenced by the overall broader market. So, if it were me, I’d take the 28% that I know I have in hand today and raise cash, knowing that the risks are insane in the broader market right now. But in the end, that decision has to be yours to make.
Paul, I really don’t like revealing those ahead of time. Why? Some will choose to jump in early, whether we end up getting into them or not. Others will do option trades on them, et whether we get into them or not and look at them like Sean’s “stamp of approval” on those stocks.
I am considering producing my monthly newsletter early since we’ve all got Thanksgiving coming up and Christmas shopping after that. So it’s possible that you may get picks early anyway. We’ll see. I’m still pondering it. Also, there’s always a chance of buy alerts coming out before the monthly newsletter too, depending on what these stocks do between now and then.lori hockParticipantNovember 16, 2020 at 4:39 PMPost count: 29
Great! Thank you Sean! I am so grateful for your guidance and for the amazing profits LI (and UWR) have provided over the years! God Bless!Sean HymanKeymasterNovember 16, 2020 at 4:51 PMPost count: 4506
You’re welcome. I’m glad it’s been a blessing to you. Thanks for being such a long-time subscriber!Paul BunkerParticipantNovember 16, 2020 at 5:06 PMPost count: 18
Since KHC is still lower than the 3rd tranche, can/should I buy any additional shares now (I only have one tranche at $33)? While I’d normally prefer it get lower to average down, I thought I could still profit nicely on the way up.Sean HymanKeymasterNovember 16, 2020 at 5:28 PMPost count: 4506
I do not suggest that. Why? Because you’d be putting extra money at risk for no good reason/benefit. The market is at about that price right now. So you’d not be advantaging yourself at all by going in at a similar price to your only tranche. You’d simply be adding risk with no advantage to you.
So, why add a tranche with no advantage when one could add to a pick when it is at an averaging down zone and advantages you by greatly lowering your average cost in the investment/average breakeven price?
And if you’ve got all of our positions and you’ve added to everything that’s hit an averaging down zone and you have money left over? Good! Then you have money for another new pick.
One more thing: It’s an assumption that KHC will for sure go up. We believe it will go up. I think it will go up. I can give all of the reasons why I believe it will go up. But in the end, we don’t know ahead of time which ones will for sure prosper and which are the few that will not. Therefore, we only add capital to an investment when its prudent to do so (which is when it gives us an edge, by a much lower average breakeven price).
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