UUP doesn’t go far enough back in history for long-term counts. But the dollar index does ($USD).
The top chart is more of a zoomed in look. The dollar is in a downtrend BUT its bear market bounce recoils tend to be sharp rises and people confuse them with an uptrend.
Also, on the lower chart, currency trends can last quite a while…so its last a-b-c downtrend was very long. We don’t know for sure if this one will replicate that or not but it could be similar.
I personally think that we had a decade or so where commodities trended lower. And we know the Fed wants higher inflation, and I believe they’ll get it. That will erode the value of the dollar and pump up the costs of goods/services as commodity prices rise.