Thanks for watching those videos. They’re chock full of great info.
Yep, don’t short uptrends, especially bubbles. Bubbles are irrational moves to begin with. Picking the exact end of that would only be luck, if someone happened to do it. But no one can do it purposefully. If there was someone that could do it, they could also pick the bottoms in markets too and be richer than Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, etc. And that person doesn’t exist.
There are institutions that short markets with small positions, but they’ve got the patience of Job and they’re not easily rattled and they know concretely why they’re in it. And even some of those pros have to close out painful shorts at losses. Bill Ackman is an example of shorts gone wrong. He’s had some very painful ones he’s had to close. And he’s even got an edge the regular investor doesn’t. An edge called “influence”. Because he manages billions, others will jump on what he does and believe what he believes (whether it turns out to be true/right or not).